Iranian diplomat Araghchi might meet with the US side, according to WSJ. The probability of a diplomatic meeting occurring by June 30, 2026, is now at 13.9% YES, up from 9% just 24 hours ago.
Trading volume hit $6,837 in USDC after the news broke. The largest price movement was a 4-point drop to 13% at 5:57 PM, indicating a recalibration of odds rather than a bullish surge. The location market shows similar odds, suggesting traders have converged on the same probability estimate.
A meeting with Araghchi would be a concrete step toward diplomacy, which is why these markets react sharply to any diplomatic signals. The odds have climbed from 2% a week ago. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 upon resolution, a 7.14x return.
Watch Omani mediation efforts and any announcements from Iranian or US officials. These are the most likely catalysts for the next move in this market.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |