The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect, with assets including the USS John Finn and Sea Hawk helicopters enforcing restrictions. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 sits at 25% YES.
Market reaction
The market for traffic normalization by June 30 has dropped well below previous levels as traders price in continued enforcement. Trading volume over the past 24 hours is zero, suggesting holders see little reason to adjust positions in either direction.
Why it matters
The blockade’s continuation means the conditions for traffic to resume, such as lifted restrictions or a formal agreement, are not close. The related market for U.S. escorts in Hormuz is also stagnant, reinforcing the same read.
What to watch
At current odds, a YES share pays $1 if traffic returns to normal by June 30, a potential 4x return. That bet requires believing in rapid de-escalation while the blockade is actively enforced. The key signals are diplomatic: any movement from President Trump or Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi toward negotiations or a lifting of the blockade would shift this market fast.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
