Iran’s internet blackout is causing $31 million in daily losses, according to Tehran’s ICT Guild. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is at 8.5% YES, slightly up from 8% yesterday.
The internet shutdown is now in its 58th day, and the cumulative economic damage is adding pressure on the regime. The June 30 market has ticked up from 6% a week ago to 8.5% today. With 67 days until resolution, traders are watching for signs of further instability.
This market is trading $35,587 in actual USDC daily, with $16,830 needed to move the price five percentage points. The face value sits at $423,658, but the market’s liquidity allows for significant swings from large orders. The largest price move was a 1-point spike at 5:11 PM, suggesting cautious positioning rather than panic selling or buying.
The prolonged blackout, combined with US-Israeli military actions and economic sanctions, compounds the regime’s difficulties. A YES share at 8.5¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 11.76x return. For this bet to make sense, traders would need to see escalating unrest or significant defections within the regime.
Watch for changes in IRGC leadership, mass protests, or statements from the Assembly of Experts. Any of these could shift the odds significantly.
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