Condom maker Karex warns of potential 30% price hikes due to Iran war supply chain disruptions. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES.
Market reaction
The odds of oil surpassing its all-time high stay at 1% even as the Strait of Hormuz closure removes nearly 25% of the world’s oil supply from transit, with traffic down over 95%. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by May 15 is at 14.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Why it matters
The April 30 market has $100,828 in face value daily but only $2,513 in actual trades, meaning $695 can shift the price by 5 points. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike. The Strait of Hormuz market is slightly thicker at $36,459 in real USDC traded daily, where $4,658 moves the odds by 5 points. Its largest move was a 2-point spike, suggesting traders are skeptical about a quick resolution.
The closure disrupts oil supply chains and secondary markets like shipping, but the 1% price on the oil record-high contract shows traders don’t expect a near-term spike even with the supply crunch. Buying YES at 1¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 100x return. That bet requires believing in a dramatic escalation before month-end.
What to watch
US or UK military and diplomatic actions toward Iran, and any OPEC+ announcements on production. Either could move both the oil price and strait traffic contracts quickly.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
