Iran’s Foreign Minister and the Sultan of Oman met to discuss regional security and the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran diplomatic meeting market for April 30 sits at 100% YES, while the June 30 market moved from 9% to 14% YES.
The April 30 sub-market is fully priced at 100% YES, meaning traders treat a meeting as a certainty. The June 30 market rose from 9% to 14% YES over the past 24 hours. Oman has historically acted as a back-channel between Washington and Tehran, and this latest meeting with Iran’s Foreign Minister fits that pattern, potentially making further US-Iran talks more likely.
Combined 24-hour trading volume across these markets: $333,553 in face value and $27,334 in actual USDC traded. The June 30 market has a book depth of $164 required to shift the price by 5 points, which means moderate liquidity and real sensitivity to large orders. The biggest single move was a 4-point drop to 13% YES at 5:57 PM.
The Iran-Oman discussions are a diplomatic signal, not a concrete agreement. Traders buying YES on a US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 14¢ per share would see a 7.14x return if the meeting happens. That bet depends on continued positive dialogue, possibly facilitated by Oman.
Watch for announcements from the White House or Iran’s Foreign Ministry about formal meeting arrangements. Oman’s position as a go-between is the key variable; any change in its engagement level would likely move the June 30 market.
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Bab El Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 19.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 40% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |
