Senator Thom Tillis has lifted his blockade of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to head the Federal Reserve. After the Justice Department ended its probe into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 sits at 92% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
Tillis’s reversal clears the main obstacle in the Senate Banking Committee, which can now advance Warsh’s nomination. The May 1 market remains at 2% YES, with only seven days left on the clock. The May 15 market is where the action is, spiking 20 points as traders priced in the Tillis news. The June 30 market is near-certain at 96% YES.
The May 15 market has $17,756 in actual USDC traded, and it costs $1,590 to move the price five points, indicating moderate liquidity. The May 1 market is thin: $193 in actual USDC and just $121 needed to shift it five points, consistent with the near-zero odds of confirmation that fast.
Two things changed at once: Tillis removed his hold, and the DOJ closed the Powell probe. Together, these clear the way for a straightforward Senate process. At 92¢, buying YES on the May 15 market pays $1 if Warsh is confirmed, a 1.09x return. The remaining risk is procedural delay or an unexpected scandal, but the market is pricing both as unlikely.
Watch for the Senate Banking Committee to schedule a confirmation hearing. Any bipartisan endorsements would further firm up the vote count ahead of a full Senate floor vote.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 92% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 96.3% | — | — | Trade → |
