The U.S. Navy’s pressure in the Strait of Hormuz has led 34 vessels to turn back. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 19% YES.
The odds haven’t moved much, down from 20% yesterday. The May 15 market remains skeptical about a quick resolution, even with 34 vessels turning back.
With 21 days left until May 15, activity is modest. The largest recent move was a 2-point increase at 3:48 PM. Volume hit $36,459 in actual USDC, with $4,658 required to move the price 5 points. That level of liquidity means one or two large orders could shift the odds meaningfully.
The 34-vessel turnback looks like progress, but traders aren’t buying it as a path to normalization. A YES share at 19¢ pays out $1, a 5.26x return. To justify the bet, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough happens within three weeks.
Watch for formal announcements from U.S. Central Command or changes in shipping patterns reported by MarineTraffic. Statements from Secretary Hegseth or Iranian officials could move the market. Resumed talks or allied naval movements would also matter.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 19% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
