The Strait of Hormuz saw just five ships transit in the last 24 hours. The odds of the UK sending warships through by April 30, 2026, sit at 2% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
Market reaction
The UK warships through Hormuz market dropped from 12% a week ago to its current 2%. Traders appear unconvinced the UK will risk transit while blockades and tensions remain unresolved. The April 30 sub-market is 6 days from resolution.
Why it matters
Daily USDC volume is $233, and it takes only $783 to shift the odds by 5 percentage points. Small trades can move this market significantly. The lack of movement today suggests traders are waiting for concrete developments before committing.
What to watch
The question is whether the near-total halt in strait traffic is temporary or a sustained strategic shift. Strait traffic levels are unlikely to normalize by the end of May without a diplomatic breakthrough. At 2.1¢, a YES share pays $1 if UK warships transit by April 30, a 47.6x return. That payout requires believing diplomatic channels open within days, which current pricing doesn’t support. Watch for movement from Iran’s Supreme Leader, the IRGC Navy Commander, or any shift in US-Iran negotiations.
API CTA
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
⚡ Also Impacted by This Story