Pirates have hijacked an oil tanker off the coast of Somalia. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure market for April 30 is at 2.2% YES, down from 6% yesterday.
The May 31 sub-market for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure sits at 15% YES. The 13-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 markets suggests traders price in a potential catalyst during May rather than immediate disruption. The April 30 sub-market is thin, needing just $451 to move 5 points.
Daily volumes for the Bab el-Mandeb markets: $93,373 in face value and $11,833 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The May 31 market needs $1,724 to move 5 points, reflecting moderate liquidity. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop for May 31, indicating some traders are reducing their exposure.
The hijacking is a direct risk to energy supplies and trade routes through the strait, particularly given reported collaboration between pirate groups, al-Shabaab, and Houthi rebels. At 2.2¢, a YES share on the April 30 closure pays $1 if it resolves, a 45x return. But this only makes sense if you expect immediate escalation or significant maritime disruption before month’s end.
Watch for further pirate activity, Houthi statements, and changes in naval deployments. IMF PortWatch updates on ship arrivals will be the most direct indicator of whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is effectively closing.
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How Many Ships Will Iran Successfully Target April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 25.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 15% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
