The U.S. announced a second round of talks in Islamabad involving Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner, but Iran hasn’t confirmed attendance. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 market sits at 19%.
The ceasefire market jumped from 6% to 19% in 24 hours. No confirmation from Iran makes the situation precarious. The uranium enrichment market dropped to 31.2%, down from 50% yesterday, a clear sign of skepticism about any breakthrough. The permanent peace deal market for April 22 also fell to 19.5%.
Even with high trading volumes, thin order books mean these markets can be moved easily by large trades. The biggest recent move in the peace market was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM.
The announcement without Iranian confirmation suggests either high-stakes diplomacy or a U.S. messaging mishap. Iran’s absence makes a ceasefire extension less likely on any timeline. A YES share in the ceasefire market at 19¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 6.25x return, but requires betting on a diplomatic breakthrough in three days.
Watch for Iran’s official stance on attending the talks. Any confirmation from Tehran would likely move these markets sharply. Statements from Oman or Qatar as potential mediators are also worth tracking.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 19% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 31.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
