Trump’s administration sanctioned the Iranian ship Touska, citing prior illegal activities. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June dropped to 48% YES after the US attacked Touska’s engine room, down from 62% the day before.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June market fell 14 points after the attack, which came in direct response to the Iranian crew ignoring warnings. Traders are pricing in higher odds of retaliatory Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz. The market has 73 days until resolution.
The Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April market is at 39.5% YES, also down from 62% a day ago. With only 12 days left, any agreement would require a rapid diplomatic breakthrough, and the attack makes that less likely.
Why it matters
The Iranian demands market traded $5,933 in USDC daily volume. It takes just $816 to move the odds by five points, so the market is thin and sensitive to large orders. The largest single price move was a six-point drop after the attack, showing how sharply trader sentiment shifted.
The sanctions and the Touska attack together signal that the US is willing to use force against Iranian shipping, not just economic pressure. The market’s 14-point drop in one day reflects traders expecting prolonged instability rather than near-term negotiation.
What to watch
Buying YES at 39.5¢ pays $1 if Trump agrees to relief by April, a 2.1x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic shift is imminent despite the escalation. Watch for CENTCOM statements and any Iranian naval movements in the coming days, both of which will move these markets.
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