Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal has driven odds for agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April down to 2% YES, a sharp fall from 14% just 24 hours ago.
The April contract, which resolves in two days, dropped from 62% a week ago to its current 2%. Traders have largely abandoned the possibility of any agreement on Iranian demands before the end of April. The market is thin: only $1,944 in USDC traded daily, with just $119 needed to move the price 5 points. An earlier 8-point spike points to underlying volatility, but the sustained drop after the announcement has held.
Trump’s position keeps leverage on the US side and maintains pressure on Iran. This is consistent with previous reports suggesting no imminent concession from the US. For traders, a YES share at 2¢ pays $1 if it resolves, but given Trump’s firm stance, that bet is almost entirely speculative.
Watch for official White House statements or any unexpected diplomatic shifts, particularly from Trump’s advisors or regional intermediaries like Oman. Any sign of concession could swing the market fast given how little volume it takes to move the price.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 19.9% | — | — | Trade → |