Trump is reviewing an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to the White House. The market for Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 sits at 57.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
Market reaction
Traders in the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market have been selling since odds hit 90% a week ago. The steady decline to 57.5% shows growing skepticism about a resolution before the May 31 deadline, with 37 days remaining. Volume is at $95,253 in daily USDC traded. It takes $8,975 to move the price 5 points, which points to a reasonably thick order book. The largest single move was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM, showing how fast sentiment shifts on new information.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit. Any de-escalation between the US and Iran over the waterway would directly affect oil supply risk and broader geopolitical tension. At 57.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade is lifted, a 1.74x return. That bet requires believing significant progress toward resolution happens within the next five weeks.
What to watch
The key signals are further statements from Trump or his advisers, particularly any indication of direct negotiations or specific concessions from Iran. The gap between the proposal review and an actual announcement is where this market will move most.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
