Iran’s Deputy Chair of the Majles National Security Commission declared negotiations with the US futile and called for rearmament instead. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April dropped to 2.2% YES, down from 14% yesterday.
The statement has moved several related markets. Trump’s agreement to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is at 2.2% YES, down from 62% a week ago. The market saw a sharp 8-point spike earlier but remains bearish as Iran’s position hardens. The Iran surrender enriched uranium by April 30 market sits at 0.8% YES, essentially null with the deadline 6 days away.
The US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations market, which resolves YES if no qualifying meeting happens by June 30, has risen to 19.9% YES. That’s a notable climb given 67 days remain until resolution, and it tracks directly with Iran’s harder line.
The Iran surrender market saw $39,286 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. It takes $9,564 to move the price 5 points, which shows entrenched positioning and deep skepticism about any sudden diplomatic shift.
Iran’s rhetoric points toward rearmament over diplomacy, which makes near-term US concessions unlikely. At 2¢, a YES share on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands pays 45.45x, but that outcome requires a dramatic reversal in Iran’s stance.
Watch for changes in US rhetoric or CENTCOM actions, and any unexpected diplomatic moves from Oman or Pakistan. These would be the clearest signals for market movement.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 19.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
