Trump said he is ready to negotiate with Iran’s new leadership but made no commitment to extending the ceasefire. The permanent peace deal by April 30 contract trades at 3% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Trump’s comments moved markets across several timelines. The short-term April 30 contract is at 3%, showing skepticism about a quick resolution. The May 31 contract is at 29% YES, meaning traders see more room for progress over the next month. The June 30 market is the most bullish at 42% YES.
The market for a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 hasn’t moved much, holding at 1% YES. Thin liquidity here means any surprise meeting announcement could swing odds sharply on minimal volume.
Total volume across the peace deal markets is $854,504 in USDC. The order book shows it takes $27,666 to move the April 30 odds by 5 points. A 6-point spike at 11:14 AM was likely a single large order. Traders are not committing size without concrete actions from either side.
Trump’s willingness to talk is notable, but the absence of a ceasefire commitment limits upside expectations. At 3¢, a YES share for an April 30 peace deal pays $1, a 33.33x return. That bet requires a last-minute breakthrough, which looks unlikely given the current diplomatic stalemate.
Watch Trump’s upcoming public appearances and statements from the Iranian leadership council. A named mediator or formal meeting announcement would be the clearest signals of real movement.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 3.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 43% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |
