Trump’s comments on the Iran ceasefire have cast doubt on its continuation. The odds of a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 now sit at 1.6% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The market for US-Iran diplomatic meetings dropped after Trump’s remarks. With only 6 days left and odds at 1.6%, traders are skeptical about a breakthrough. Trading activity is modest: $613 in actual USDC traded daily and $972 required to shift the odds by 5 percentage points.
The market for a permanent peace deal by April 30 has fallen to 1.6% YES. Odds for a deal by June 30 are at 11.5%, meaning traders expect any progress to come later. The 10-point gap between the April 30 and June 30 contracts points to mid-year as the earliest realistic window.
Liquidity is thin, with $2,451 in actual USDC traded across relevant markets in the last 24 hours. The largest price movement was a 1-point drop, consistent with cautious sentiment rather than panic.
Trump’s vague, non-committal statements introduced no new concrete actions, producing a moderate decrease in optimism across these markets. At 1.6¢, a YES share for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 pays $1 if it happens, but that payout requires a sudden diplomatic shift within six days. The current odds say traders aren’t expecting one.
Watch for formal announcements of renewed talks or unexpected diplomatic gestures. A confirmed meeting or a significant change in rhetoric from figures like Rubio or Kushner could move these markets quickly.
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Who Will Meet With Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
