Part of the Iranian delegation returned to Tehran for consultations and is set to rejoin talks in Pakistan tomorrow. The market on Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The delegation’s temporary departure has produced no shift in odds, which remain locked at 100% YES across all sub-markets. Combined 24-hour trading volume is $0. The 100% figure reflects previously established positions, not active trading. Traders are either absent or see no reason to adjust.
Why it matters
At 100% YES with zero volume, this market is effectively frozen. Buying YES at $1 returns nothing. The only scenario that would reopen trading is a development that makes a strike by April 30 look less certain, such as a concrete diplomatic agreement. The Iranian government has framed the Pakistan talks around sustainable peace, but the market prices no diplomatic success before the end of April.
What to watch
Concrete announcements from the Pakistan-mediated talks or public statements from Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi could be the first signals to break the current consensus. The delegation’s return to Tehran for consultations, followed by a planned return to Pakistan, is worth tracking for any change in tone or substance.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
