A maritime agency reports a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian gunboats. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 31 is at ?% YES.
The attack points to possible ceasefire violations between the US and Iran. Traders are reassessing the likelihood of normal traffic levels returning by the end of May. The Strait of Hormuz traffic market currently has no trading activity, but sentiment leans bearish on normalization.
The UK warship deployment market sits at 6% YES, suggesting some expectation that the UK might increase its naval presence after the Iranian gunboat attack.
Daily USDC volume in the warship market is $2,086, with $427 needed to move odds 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop. These odds price UK warship deployment as unlikely, but IRGC aggression could change that quickly.
The attack exposes how fragile any ceasefire arrangement is. Traders betting on normal traffic by May face higher risk. At current prices, a YES share could be undervalued if you expect an imminent diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for CENTCOM communications and UK Ministry of Defence announcements. Confirmed naval movements or new ceasefire terms could shift these markets fast.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
