A new POLITICO poll shows weak public support for Trump’s Iran strategy. The odds of a US declaration of war on Iran by April 30 sit at 0.7% YES.
The April 30 market has slipped from 1% yesterday. The December 31 market is at 7.5% YES, down from 8% a week ago. The term structure shows a 7-point gap between April and December, suggesting traders expect potential catalysts later in the year.
Trading volume is thin: just $329 daily across these markets. The April 30 sub-market has a higher face value but only $327 in actual USDC traded, and $2,378 would move the price 5 percentage points.
The poll matters because only 38% of voters support military action, which makes Congress less likely to pass a war declaration. A YES share at 0.7¢ pays $1 if resolved, but that payout requires a rapid shift in public opinion or an unforeseen escalation, neither of which current sentiment supports.
Watch for Congressional statements or movement in public polling. Either could shift odds if Congress moves toward or away from a war declaration.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
