Iran and the US have effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, blocking all vessel traffic. The likelihood of UK warships passing through by April 30 is now at 7.5% YES.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 has dropped to 59.5% YES, down from 60% just a day ago. The UK warship market sits at 7.5% YES. The market for Trump announcing an end to the blockade by May 31 holds steady at 77.5% YES.
Why it matters
Trading volume in the Strait of Hormuz market is at $32,234 in USDC. The UK warship market, by contrast, needs only $427 to move five points, making it prone to volatility. The largest single move was a four-point drop in the Strait of Hormuz market at 6:46 PM, a quick trader reaction to the blockade news.
The blockade’s persistence suggests a hardening stance from both sides, which lowers the probability of a near-term resolution. For traders considering a YES position, buying at 7.5¢ offers a 18x return if UK warships do pass through. But with only 14 days left, that bet requires expecting rapid de-escalation.
What to watch
US-Iran talks are scheduled for this weekend. Any shift in diplomatic language or progress in negotiations could move these odds quickly.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 77.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
