Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has begun a diplomatic tour through Pakistan, Oman, and Russia to ease tensions with the US. The odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 sit at 6.0% YES, down from 16% yesterday and 42% a week ago.
The nuclear deal market remains bearish. The 15-point drop over the past week shows traders don’t believe Araghchi’s visits will produce a deal before month’s end, even as the tour itself signals active negotiation efforts.
The diplomatic meeting locations market sits at 9.1% YES for no qualifying meeting by June 30, 2026, down from 8% yesterday. That drop suggests growing belief that a meeting will happen, with Oman’s involvement as a potential neutral venue driving the shift. Order book depth is thin: $114 moves the price 5 points, so expect sharp swings on any news.
Iran’s reported mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz raises supply concerns, but the oil price market for a crude all-time high by April 30 holds at 1.0% YES, unchanged. Traders appear to view the diplomatic tour as reducing the risk of immediate escalation.
The nuclear deal market’s skepticism tracks with repeated past failures to close an agreement. A YES share at 10.1¢ pays $1 if a deal resolves by April 30, a 9.9x return. Buyers at this price are betting on a last-minute breakthrough.
Watch for statements from Oman or Russia on the tour’s progress. Any indication of substantive concessions or a scheduled US-Iran meeting would likely move the nuclear deal odds sharply higher.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
