Iran’s Foreign Minister intends to convey considerations for ending the war, according to Tasnim. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
Market reaction
The Iranian regime fall market dipped slightly to 7.5% YES after the announcement. The regime fall market has seen modest fluctuations recently, with a 1-point spike as its largest move. The Iran Leadership Status market is unchanged.
Why it matters
Trading on the regime fall market shows $35,587 in actual USDC, well below face value, which points to cautious interest. Order book depth sits at $16,830 to move the market 5 points, meaning moderate liquidity with room for volatility if large trades come in. The leadership status market is dormant, with no current trading activity.
What to watch
Iran’s move to convey considerations could be a genuine step toward resolving the conflict or a tactical pause. Traders appear to read this as a stabilizing signal, though the market response has been muted. At 7.5¢, a YES share in the regime fall market pays $1 if the regime collapses by June 30, a 13.3x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe imminent, significant internal upheaval is likely.
Watch for further announcements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry or new U.S. military actions. Either could clarify whether this represents a real shift toward peace or a strategic pause.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |