A two-week ceasefire in Iran starting April 8, 2026, has drawn trader attention, but the market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at a flat 1% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
The ceasefire has not moved oil market odds. Actual USDC traded is $514 per day, and it takes $1,955 to shift the market by 5 percentage points, making this a thin market where any significant news could cause a sharp move. Check the market here.
Bitcoin markets show a similar pattern. The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April is 1.2% YES, down from 2% twenty-four hours ago. Daily volume is $1,254 in actual USDC, so this market is also thin enough that a geopolitical shift could produce sharp moves. See the market details.
The ceasefire is temporary and doesn’t remove the underlying risks in the region. The odds reflect skepticism about a lasting resolution. At 1¢, a YES share on WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 pays $1 if correct, a 100x return. That outcome would require something like a sudden escalation in hostilities or an OPEC+ crisis.
Watch for developments from the ongoing talks in Islamabad. A breakdown could push oil prices up, while sustained diplomacy might hold them steady. Statements from President Trump and Iranian officials are the most likely catalysts for movement.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
What Price Will Wti Hit In April 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
