Aave’s total deposits have fallen to $29.6 billion, down from $45.8 billion, following the KelpDAO exploit. The attack caused a $16.2 billion outflow, erasing over a third of the platform’s assets. The “Ethereum will reach $4,000 in April” market is trading at bearish levels, while “Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 in April” is showing signs of negative pressure.
Market reaction
In the Ethereum market, the odds of hitting $4,000 in April are under pressure. The KelpDAO incident is creating headwinds given Ethereum’s role in DeFi protocols like Aave. Bitcoin is indirectly affected: the odds of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April are seeing a modest increase as traders grow more cautious following the exploit.
Why it matters
The $16.2 billion outflow from Aave represents one of the largest single-event asset drains in DeFi history. Ethereum’s exposure is direct, since Aave runs primarily on Ethereum. Bitcoin’s connection is weaker but still present through general crypto sentiment. For Ethereum at 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if it hits $4,000 by month-end, a 6.67x return. The Bitcoin market, though less directly tied to the exploit, still faces downward pressure. Traders may see opportunities in short positions betting on further bearish movement.
What to watch
Liquidity in both markets is thin. The Ethereum $4,000 market shows limited movement due to low trading volume, and Bitcoin’s $60,000 dip market has yet to see meaningful liquidity changes. Both markets are sensitive to further developments from the Aave exploit aftermath, and any large trades could swing the odds significantly. Watch for statements from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin or other protocol figures on security measures or upgrades. How Aave manages its remaining reserves and any recovery plans will also affect sentiment.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 71.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
