ONPE has finalized the count of pending ballots, confirming Roberto Sánchez’s lead over Rafael López Aliaga by more than 20,000 votes. The market for López Aliaga advancing to the presidential runoff sits at 4.7% YES, down from 16% a week ago.
Market reaction
The sharp drop from 16% to 4.7% reflects the confirmed vote gap. The market for López Aliaga winning the entire election trades with a 24-hour volume of $205,004 face value, though actual USDC traded is $10,172. The order book requires $8,364 to move odds by 5 percentage points, a moderately thick book. The largest movement was a 1-point spike, suggesting traders are waiting for a major development before placing bigger bets.
Why it matters
With Sánchez’s 20,000-vote lead now confirmed by ONPE’s final count, López Aliaga’s path to the runoff is nearly closed. He would need to overtake Sánchez to finish in the top two, and the completed ballot count leaves almost no mechanism for that to happen absent a legal intervention.
What to watch
The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) could still receive legal challenges that alter the official standings. Any rulings from the JNE on ballot disputes or candidate eligibility would directly affect whether López Aliaga has any remaining path forward.
Trade snapshot
At 4.7¢, a YES share pays $1 if he wins, a 21.3x return. That price reflects a long shot dependent on a JNE reversal that overturns a 20,000-vote deficit.
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