CENTCOM reports the USS Pinckney enforcing a shutdown of Iranian sea trade, and the Polymarket contract for fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between April 6 and April 12 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
Zero ship movement from Iranian ports during the April 6–12 window has left the odds for 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz effectively dead. The window is now closed. The market for fewer than 20 ships is locked at 100% YES.
Why it matters
Volume on these markets is at $0, consistent with absolute certainty in the outcome. No ships transited the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period, and trading activity reflects that. The U.S. naval presence has effectively stopped Iranian maritime operations for this window, and at 100% YES, there is no remaining edge in the Strait of Hormuz transit markets.
What to watch
The question now is whether the blockade escalates or gives way to diplomacy. Specific triggers: updates from Islamabad talks, Iranian military responses, or any shift in CENTCOM’s operational posture. A ceasefire breakthrough would change the calculus for future weekly transit contracts.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
