The Strait of Hormuz has been cleared following Iranian attacks on commercial ships. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 sits at 0.4% YES.
Market reaction
The fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 contract spiked 2 points early this morning but remains at 0.4% YES. With one day left in the resolution window, traders are pricing in almost no chance of a full shipping halt.
On the warship side, odds of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. The decline suggests traders don’t expect a formal naval response soon.
Why it matters
Trading volumes expose how thin these markets are. The ship transit market has $14 in total USDC traded, meaning $12 can move the price 5 points. The warship market is thicker at $5,648 in USDC traded, where $304 is needed to shift the market 5 points.
The news itself comes from a tier-3 source, which is often less reliable in high-stakes geopolitical contexts. This could be more noise than genuine escalation.
What to watch
For traders considering a YES bet on the ship transit market, buying at 0.4¢ pays $1 on resolution, a 250x return, but that requires Iran maintaining its aggressive posture and zero ships transiting. Watch for announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence or CENTCOM on regional naval movements, which would directly affect both contracts.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |