The USS Gerald Ford has moved into the Red Sea while Iran insists on keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait between April 13-19 sits at 0.4% YES.
Market reaction
The fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-19 contract moved from 0% to 0.4% after the new developments. The market saw a 2-point spike at 4:25 AM.
Actual USDC traded in this market is $57, against a $14,615 face value, which makes this a thin market prone to volatility. It takes just $12 to move the price 5 points, meaning even small trades can shift the odds significantly.
Why it matters
Iran’s commitment to keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed puts direct pressure on ship transit markets. The ongoing internet blackout and the USS Gerald Ford’s movement into the Red Sea point to a tense military environment with room for further escalation. At 0.4% YES, traders are pricing in very low probability of a near-total shipping halt, likely waiting for more definitive signals before committing.
What to watch
A contrarian YES position at 0.4¢ offers a potential 250x return if fewer than 10 ships transit by April 19, though this bet carries heavy risk absent an unexpected diplomatic shift. Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or Iran’s Foreign Ministry on transit restrictions or negotiations. A sudden change from either side could materially move these odds.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
