The U.S. military has deployed autonomous sea drones to address mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for 80 ships transiting the Strait by April 30 now sit at 22.5% YES, down from 51% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The market dropped 10 points at 5:48 PM, with traders pricing in higher risk of shipping disruptions from the ongoing U.S. blockade and mine-clearing operations. April 30 is the resolution date, with only 12 days remaining.
Why it matters
Daily USDC volume is $16,360. The order book is thin: $797 moves the price 5 percentage points, meaning a handful of large trades can shift the market substantially. The deployment signals that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains unstable and that active mine threats are still present in the shipping lane.
What to watch
Traders betting YES at 22¢ a share would collect a 4.5x return if the transit target is met. Under current security conditions, that outcome requires either rapid mine-clearing success or a diplomatic shift. Watch for announcements from Admiral Brad Cooper or U.S. Central Command updates on mine-clearing progress and changes to shipping protocols.
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Bab El Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 20% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 21.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
