The U.S. is preparing to seize Iranian crude tankers globally and reposition missile systems to Jordan. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for sanction relief in April sits at 0% YES.
The Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April market has dropped on the news. These hawkish actions point away from any conciliatory move by Trump. Meanwhile, odds for a Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 have climbed to 6% YES, up from 4% yesterday.
The 2-point jump in Gulf State action odds tracks the U.S. military repositioning. Liquidity is thin: $717 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The largest move was a 1-point spike, suggesting cautious positioning. Depth is shallow, with just $2,365 required to move the April 30 market 5 points, leaving it vulnerable to swings from single large orders.
Seizing tankers and repositioning missiles are escalatory steps, not precursors to negotiation. With 0% YES shares priced at 0¢, any bet on Trump reversing course would need a dramatic shift in diplomatic activity. Without signs of talks, these markets will likely stay where they are.
Watch for CENTCOM briefings and Gulf state military movements. A confirmed airstrike or naval engagement by a Gulf state would move the April 30 market sharply.
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Gulf State Military Action Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
