MSNBC reports Trump has engaged in conflict influenced by Netanyahu, with U.S. Central Command active in the Arabian Sea. The odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 are currently at ? YES.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is enforcing a naval blockade in the region, and these operations have pushed the perceived likelihood of further military action higher. The U.S. invasion of Iran market reflects this, though no ground deployment has occurred yet.
The Trump announces end of military operations against Iran market for April 21 sits at 15.5% YES, down from 38% yesterday. Nuclear negotiations have not advanced, and military operations continue, which explains the drop. Daily volume is $115,188 in USDC traded, and it would take $8,090 to move the odds by 5 percentage points.
Diplomatic talks are ongoing in Islamabad, but the naval blockade and active military presence have not produced movement toward either escalation or de-escalation. At 15.5¢, a YES share in the end of military operations market pays $1 if resolved, a 6.45x return for anyone betting on an announcement within three days.
Watch for announcements from Trump or CENTCOM on military operations. A change in the naval blockade’s status or a diplomatic breakthrough in nuclear talks would move these markets.
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