The U.S. Supreme Court has terminated key tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, triggering a $166 billion refund process starting April 20, 2026. The ruling dismantles a core piece of Trump’s economic nationalism strategy, and prediction markets are repricing accordingly.
Market reaction
The Trump Tariffs / Trade War market is likely to see decreased odds for new EU retaliatory tariffs. Without active tariffs to retaliate against, the EU’s rationale for imposing new tariffs weakens, and a truce arrangement holds steady through November 2026.
On the Trump visit front, the market for Trump visiting China by May 31 sits at 79.5% YES, up from 72% a week ago. The planned Trump-Xi summit appears to be the main catalyst, with an 83-point jump in odds between April 30 and May 31. The June 30 market is at 85.5% YES, showing increased confidence in a visit within the next two months.
Why it matters
The Supreme Court ruling removes the legal basis for the tariffs that drove trade war escalation fears. With the tariff regime struck down and refunds underway, the diplomatic environment between the U.S. and China is less confrontational, which makes a presidential visit more plausible and retaliatory measures from the EU less likely.
What to watch
The Trump visit markets have seen $26,476 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. It takes $18,983 to move the May 31 market by 5 points, indicating stronger conviction in that timeframe. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop in the June 30 market, showing some volatility there.
At 0.9¢, a YES share for Trump’s visit by April 30 offers a 110.1x payout, but that requires believing a last-minute announcement is imminent. The odds suggest traders are pricing a late May diplomatic breakthrough as the more realistic scenario. Watch for announcements from the White House and Chinese Foreign Ministry on summit dates or itinerary details. Karoline Leavitt’s briefings and any updates from Lin Jian could move these markets.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 79.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 85.5% | — | — | Trade → |
