The US has expanded its naval blockade against Iran as part of Operation Economic Fury, extending operations into the Indo-Pacific and Arabian Sea. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES, while the US blockade of Hormuz lifting by May 31 has dropped to 61% YES.
## Market reaction
The Hormuz blockade lifting market fell from 77% to 61% in just 24 hours, a 16-point drop that coincides with the expanded naval operations. Daily trading volume is $32,536, and it takes $7,029 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The Iran strike market, already at 100% YES, leaves no room for further upward movement.
## Why it matters
The expansion beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Indo-Pacific and Arabian Sea represents a broader geographic commitment to economic pressure on Iran. This wider footprint makes a quick resolution less likely, which explains the sharp selloff in the blockade-lifting market. The 16-point drop in a single day suggests traders are repricing the timeline for any diplomatic off-ramp.
## What to watch
Official announcements from Trump or the Pentagon about the scope and duration of expanded operations will be the most direct signal. Movements of US and Iranian naval forces in the Arabian Sea and Indo-Pacific could indicate whether the blockade is tightening further or stabilizing. Any back-channel diplomatic activity around sanctions relief or nuclear talks would shift the Hormuz lifting market.
## Trade snapshot
Buying YES at 61¢ in the Hormuz blockade lifting market pays 1.64x if the blockade is lifted by May 31. That bet requires confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough within weeks, against the current trend of escalation.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |