China has issued new online marketing rules that classify crypto promotion and trading as illegal. The Bitcoin price prediction market for April 25 sits at 99.8% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The People’s Bank of China, alongside seven other agencies, reinforced its longstanding ban on crypto-related activities. The market’s odds for Bitcoin being above $66,000 by April 25 have not moved. With only two days left until resolution, traders are keeping the odds consistently high. The market trades $105,399 daily in actual USDC.
Volume in the Bitcoin price predictions for April 25 market shows a combined face value of $528,125 over 24 hours, with actual USDC traded at $421,595. The order book is deep enough that substantial trades would be needed to shift prices. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was negligible. Traders aren’t pricing in any immediate impact from China’s announcement on Bitcoin’s price.
China’s crypto restrictions aren’t new, but the rules reaffirm a hard regulatory stance that could affect market confidence outside China. With Bitcoin prediction markets holding steady, traders appear to treat this as regulatory noise. At 99.8¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin stays above $66,000, offering a 1.002x return. For any meaningful shift in this market, it would take changes in institutional behavior or a significant geopolitical event.
Watch for regulatory responses from the SEC and European regulators, which could affect sentiment. Unexpected announcements from major financial institutions or geopolitical disruptions could also move prices.
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Bitcoin Above On April 25| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 25 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
