The US energy chief’s optimism on Iran talks pushed ceasefire odds higher. Ceasefire by April 30 is at 37.5% YES, recovering from a 24-hour low of 59%.
The US-Iran ceasefire market traded $80,435 in actual USDC volume. The permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 19.5% YES, meaning traders see a ceasefire as plausible but a full agreement as unlikely on that timeline.
The gap between 37.5% on a ceasefire and 19.5% on a permanent deal tells you where the skepticism lives: traders can imagine a halt to military operations but not a lasting resolution by late April. The $1,566 it takes to move the ceasefire market 5 points means the book is liquid enough for meaningful positioning without wild swings on small orders.
The energy chief’s comments lack concrete backing, with no scheduled talks or confirmed agreements announced. Buying YES at 38¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced by April 30, a 2.63x return. That bet requires belief in a diplomatic push within 12 days.
Watch for announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Pakistan, or shifts in rhetoric from Trump or the Sultan of Oman. Any of these would move the market fast.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 39% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |