Rumen Radev, a former president who has opposed sanctions against Russia, leads exit polls in Bulgaria’s latest election, pushing his Polymarket odds for becoming the next prime minister to 96.0% YES.
The 2026 market sits at 91.5% YES, up from 76% a week ago. Daily volume is $25,908 in face value and $24,076 in actual USDC, with order book depth requiring $3,810 to move the odds by 5 points. A 4-point drop at 3:21 PM briefly interrupted the climb, but the price recovered and the overall trend favors Radev.
Radev has opposed further military aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. A win could shift Bulgaria’s foreign policy toward a more neutral position within the EU and NATO, potentially halting arms flows to Ukraine and slowing energy diversification away from Russian gas. For traders, buying YES at 96.0¢ would yield a 1.1x return if Radev takes office.
Bulgaria has now held eight elections in recent years without producing a stable government. A Radev premiership would change Bulgaria’s positioning within the EU and NATO on questions of Russia policy and regional security. Traders should watch coalition talks closely, particularly any agreements between Radev and GERB-SDS or DPS.
President Iliana Iotova’s next moves matter directly here. She appoints the prime minister, and the shape of any coalition agreements in the coming days will determine whether the 91.5% price holds or corrects.
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