US Central Command has directed 31 vessels to turn around or return to port as part of a maritime blockade against Iran. The odds for 80 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 are now at 6% YES, down from 17% just 24 hours ago.
The April 30 market has dropped steeply as enforcement actions increase. With only seven days left until resolution, traders are clearly skeptical about hitting the 80-ship benchmark. The CENTCOM report on turned-back vessels has reinforced bearish sentiment.
Trading volume over the last 24 hours shows a face value of $18,346, with $2,238 in actual USDC changing hands. The largest price move was a modest 2-point spike at 10:22 AM, meaning there is interest but no high volatility. It takes just $946 to move the price by 5 percentage points, which points to thin liquidity and the potential for a few large trades to shift the market significantly.
The blockade’s continuation during a temporary ceasefire signals a strategic effort to pressure Iran economically. At the current price, YES shares cost 6¢ and pay $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30. That bet only makes sense if you believe in a sudden reversal within the next week.
Watch for CENTCOM announcements or IRGC actions that might change the current trajectory. A diplomatic breakthrough or shift in operational posture could still move these odds.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
