The US is considering new strikes if Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by May 31 sits at 59.5% YES, down from 77% yesterday.
The May 31 market fell 17.5 points over 24 hours. With 38 days left, daily volume is $32,536 in USDC, and it takes $7,404 to move the market 5 points — moderate liquidity that’s vulnerable to larger orders.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 holds at 5.5% YES with only 7 days remaining. The June 30 market sits at 41.5% YES, pricing in the possibility of longer-term negotiations.
Reports of US strike planning point toward further escalation, making a quick resolution less likely. A YES share in the April peace deal market costs 6¢ and pays 16.67x if a deal is announced. But with military options on the table, the price reflects deep skepticism about imminent diplomacy.
Watch for official statements from the Pentagon or Trump’s strategic communications. Any announcement of military action or a shift in diplomatic posture could move these markets fast.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 42.5% | — | — | Trade → |
