The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has effectively shut down normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 0% YES, with no trades recorded in the past 24 hours.
The blockade has halted Iran’s sea trade and obstructed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of global oil shipments. Odds that crude oil prices will hit $90 by the end of June remain high as traders price in ongoing supply constraints. The likelihood of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran by April 30 has dropped to 2.9% YES, down from 14% a week ago.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market shows zero activity, meaning traders see no realistic path to normalization before the April 30 deadline. The ceasefire market is more active but still deeply skeptical. The largest single move there was a 48-point spike at 11:40 AM, suggesting brief volatility around a possible diplomatic signal.
At 2.9¢, a YES share in the ceasefire market pays $1 if Trump announces a ceasefire by April 30, a 34.5x return. That bet only makes sense if you expect an imminent diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for diplomatic activity involving intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, which could move the ceasefire market sharply.
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