TotalEnergies announced that the ongoing conflict has wiped out the expected 2026 hydrocarbon surplus, and crude oil prices hitting $90 by end of June now carry a 25% increased probability on Polymarket.
The news has moved the crude oil price by end of June market. The surplus expectation is gone, pointing to tighter supply. TotalEnergies reported a severe supply disruption from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil transit. With 62 days left until resolution, volatility is likely.
On the geopolitical side, Ali al-Zaidi’s appointment as Iraq’s new prime minister appears to harden existing tensions. The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 2.7% YES, down from 14% a week ago. Traders see almost no chance of a ceasefire. Al-Zaidi was appointed under U.S. pressure and is aligned with U.S. interests against Iran, which doesn’t signal de-escalation.
Volume on the ceasefire market is $70,162 in actual USDC traded, with a 48-point spike at 11:40 AM. Traders are clearly reacting to geopolitical developments. The market remains thin: only $1,096 is needed to move it 5 points, meaning individual trades can shift the price meaningfully.
The removal of the anticipated oil surplus points to tighter supply and upward pressure on prices. At 25¢, a YES share for crude oil hitting $90 pays $1 if it resolves, a 4x return. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions both reduce available supply.
Watch for OPEC+ announcements or changes in the Strait of Hormuz’s status. U.S. diplomatic moves and Iraq’s political trajectory could also shift these markets.
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