The US has authorized military action against Iran, pushing the odds of Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by June 30 to 16% YES, unchanged from yesterday but up from 10% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Kharg Island control market shows a clear term structure. The largest jump is between April 30 and May 31, with odds rising from 3.9% to 12.5%. Traders are pricing in a significant event in May. The authorization for action could be that catalyst, especially given the increase in tensions.
In the Iran ship targeting market, odds for Iran successfully targeting ships by April 30 are at 25.4% YES, up from 19% yesterday on heightened concerns about naval confrontations.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market sits at 22.5% YES, meaning traders are skeptical about traffic normalization by May 15. US military actions could disrupt shipping routes further, pushing these odds lower.
Why it matters
This authorization signals a potential shift from diplomatic posturing to active military engagement. Trade volume at $50,017 in USDC over the past 24 hours is concentrated in the Kharg Island markets. It takes $9,474 to move the April 30 odds by 5 points, which points to a robust order book that could absorb shocks absent a major geopolitical event.
What to watch
A YES share for Kharg Island control by April 30 trades at 4¢, offering a potential 25x payout if resolved. Traders betting on swift US intervention would need credible military actions or strategic shifts to justify the position. Watch for CENTCOM announcements and satellite imagery confirming US movements or changes in control of strategic locations like Kharg Island.
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Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 16% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 25.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 21.5% | — | — | Trade → |
