US and Iranian delegations are set to meet separately with Pakistani mediators in Islamabad this weekend, according to a senior Pakistani official. The market for a direct US-Iran meeting on April 24 sits at 0.9% YES.
The announcement has moved several related markets. The April 25 market is at 8.4% YES, while the April 26 market is priced higher at 28.9% YES. The April 26 market saw the most activity following the announcement, suggesting traders expect the weekend mediation to produce a direct meeting shortly after.
Combined USDC volume across these markets is $1,042 over the past 24 hours, with April 26 drawing the most trading. The Islamabad venue market for hosting a meeting by June 30 is also attracting interest given Pakistan’s active mediator role.
Pakistan has existing diplomatic ties to both the US and Iran, which makes it a plausible go-between on ceasefire and broader diplomatic questions. That said, odds remain low across all dates, indicating traders want to see concrete outcomes from the preliminary talks before pricing in a direct meeting.
Traders should watch for official confirmations from the White House or Iranian officials. A statement confirming the talks could shift odds sharply. Reports of successful preliminary discussions or any direct engagement between the US and Iranian delegations over the weekend would also move these markets.
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Next Us X Iran Diplomatic Meeting On| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 7.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 28.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.9% | — | — | Trade → |
