The US accused Iran of holding the global economy “hostage” through its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz at a UN meeting. The odds of Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 are at 57.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
Market reaction
Traders sold off quickly after the US’s aggressive posture at the UN. The May 31 market dropped from 72% to 57.5% YES in 24 hours, with $95,253 in USDC traded on the day. The market is thin: it takes only $8,975 to move the price 5 percentage points, making it vulnerable to large single orders.
Why it matters
The UN accusation signals no diplomatic off-ramp is close. Vessel traffic at the Strait remains severely restricted, and Trump is doubling down on the blockade rather than signaling flexibility. The Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal market has been trending downward in parallel, consistent with expectations that normalization by June is unlikely.
What to watch
A YES share at 57.5¢ pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade’s end by May 31, a 1.74x return. That bet requires confidence in a rapid diplomatic shift that current signals don’t support. Watch for CENTCOM statements or Trump social media posts. Any sign of back-channel negotiations or changes to operational orders could move these markets fast.
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