Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire has stirred speculation about a potential diplomatic meeting with the US by April 30. The odds for a meeting are currently at 1% YES, down from 22% a week ago.
The diplomatic meetings with Iran market remains skeptical despite the proposal. Trading volume sits at $27,673/day (face value), with just $613 in real USDC moving through. It takes $972 to shift the odds by five points, a thin order book that one whale could easily sway. The biggest movement in the last 24 hours was a 1-point drop.
The US-Iran diplomatic meeting market for an April 30 meeting is at 100% YES, which suggests traders believe a meeting is inevitable. The June 30 contract tells a different story at 16.2% YES, up from just 2% a week ago. This gap suggests traders expect any potential meeting to occur closer to the deadline, or to be delayed altogether.
The strait reopening is a substantial gesture from Iran that could theoretically open the way for direct talks. But without tangible commitments from the US, it’s more a diplomatic nicety than a breakthrough. At 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if a meeting occurs by April 30, a 100x return. But for that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in an imminent diplomatic leap.
Watch for official announcements from the White House or Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Specifics around meeting logistics or Trump tweeting about negotiations could swing this market fast.
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Who Will Meet With Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16.2% | — | — | Trade → |
