Trump’s “Anaconda Plan” aims to choke Iran’s economy through a naval blockade and sanctions. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 7% YES, down from 14% yesterday and 62% a week ago.
Market reaction
The sanction relief market has collapsed as the U.S. refuses to lift the naval blockade without nuclear concessions, killing expectations for a quick agreement. Odds for crude oil prices hitting an all-time high by April 30 are at 1.2% YES, which means traders aren’t betting on severe supply disruptions even with a potential blockade.
The uranium enrichment market (Iran ending enrichment by April 30) is at 2.9% YES, down from 6% yesterday and 50% a week ago. Traders are skeptical the blockade will force Iran into major concessions. The blockade is designed to push Iran back to negotiations, but nobody is pricing in an imminent breakthrough.
Why it matters
With $7,777 in USDC traded across related markets in the past 24 hours, order book depth is thin, making these markets vulnerable to large swings from single trades. The biggest recorded move was an 8-point spike in the sanction relief market at 12:08 PM, showing how reactive traders are to any perceived policy shift.
What to watch
The “Anaconda Plan” confirms the U.S. is choosing economic pressure over military escalation. For traders, quick resolutions look unlikely. A YES share in the sanction relief market at 7¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 14x return. But that bet requires believing in a diplomatic turnaround within the next 5 days.
Watch for Trump’s upcoming statements or backchannel breakthroughs. Changes in operational language from the Pentagon or Treasury could also move these markets.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
