The Justice Department has ended its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, removing a major obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair. The market for Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 now sits at 87% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
The DOJ decision has reshaped odds across multiple contract timelines. The May 1 contract remains low at 1.9% YES, showing skepticism about an immediate confirmation. The May 15 contract has surged to 87%, while the June 30 contract sits at 96.2%, meaning traders treat confirmation as near-certain by that date. The 85-point gap between the May 1 and May 15 contracts implies traders expect a decisive development in the first two weeks of May.
Volume on the May 15 contract is at $17,756 in USDC traded. Market depth shows $1,590 needed to shift odds by 5 percentage points. A 20-point spike at 2:18 PM points to a large single buy-in, likely from an institutional trader or a well-capitalized retail position.
The DOJ investigation was the main barrier to Warsh’s confirmation. At 87¢, buying YES shares on the May 15 contract pays 1.15x if Warsh is confirmed, a bet that depends on no new obstacles appearing. The market move prices in both the end of the Powell investigation and the political dynamics around Warsh’s potential Fed leadership.
Watch Senator Thom Tillis. His next moves on Senate Banking Committee scheduling or signals of bipartisan support would directly affect these odds.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 86.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
