President Trump said Iran talks will continue over the weekend, linking an agreement to lifting the blockade. The odds of Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 44.0% YES, up from 35% yesterday.
Trump’s comments have traders watching two markets: Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 and the US lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31. The blockade market sits at 87.5% YES. That May 31 price implies confidence that a deal will follow the current ceasefire, which ends April 21.
The uranium enrichment market is thin, with daily USDC volume at $23,824 and only $599 needed to move the odds 5 points. Traders appear to read Trump’s linkage of the blockade to a deal as a sign of real progress. The blockade market is thicker at $33,928 per day, but $3,730 still moves the price 5 points.
What matters here is Trump’s framing. If a deal emerges, it could resolve both the blockade and the nuclear question quickly. If talks stall, both markets could reverse fast. Buying YES at 39¢ on uranium enrichment ending by April 30 pays $1 on resolution, a potential 2.55x return. That bet only makes sense if you expect a breakthrough within 14 days.
Watch for announcements from the Islamabad talks and any shifts in Iranian or US diplomatic positions. Trump’s next remarks or tweets could move both markets.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 44% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 87.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 12% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
