Trump says China’s President Xi is pleased with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while the Polymarket contract on Trump announcing the blockade’s lifting by May 31, 2026, holds at 87% YES.
Market reaction
The blockade announcement by May 31 market is steady at 87%. The term structure shows traders expect a catalyst between April 19 and May 31, with a 64-point jump across that window. April 17’s odds sit at 0.5% with one day left, and April 19 is at 15.0%.
In the Iran peace deal market, odds of a permanent deal by April 22 are up to 31.5%. With only six days left, traders are still cautious. The UK warships through Hormuz market stayed flat at 5.5% YES, showing skepticism about near-term naval movements.
Why it matters
Trump’s statement points to possible progress on reopening the Strait, which is at the center of US-Iran tensions. But without concrete actions or agreements, these contracts remain volatile. Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets is $33,928. The April 19 sub-market dropped 6 points as traders recalibrated expectations, and order book depth of $257 to move 5 points means low liquidity and vulnerability to swings.
What to watch
Watch for direct announcements from Trump, Pentagon briefings, or any move by China to mediate. These would move odds sharply. Trump’s upcoming meeting with Xi is the next likely catalyst. Buying YES at 87¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.22x return.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 87% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 15% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 31.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
