Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has pushed the odds of his endorsement to 100.0% YES, while the market on suspension of Israeli offensive operations in Lebanon also sits at 100.0% YES.
The endorsement market was already at 100% from previous confirmations, and Trump’s statement locks that in. The suspension of offensive operations market at 100% means traders see no immediate return to hostilities. With 12 days left until resolution, the market prices in a firm pause.
Volume in both markets is flat, with no recent trades moving the odds. This points to full consensus with little room for movement unless new information surfaces. The absence of trading activity suggests traders are waiting for concrete developments before adjusting positions.
The ceasefire announcement carries weight, but Hezbollah’s conditional compliance and the informal nature of the agreement leave room for instability. A YES share in the ceasefire endorsement market at full price pays no additional return, but the suspension of offensive operations market could shift if hostilities resume.
Watch for changes in Hezbollah’s stance or renewed Israeli military action. Netanyahu’s statements matter here, as do any updates from the U.S. State Department or Pentagon briefings.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
