Trump confirmed a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. The market on whether Trump would endorse an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 is now at 100% YES.
The odds hit 100% after Trump’s announcement on Truth Social, which fulfilled the market’s resolution condition. The ceasefire endorsement market now reflects unanimous trader agreement.
No trading volume was recorded in the past 24 hours, as the odds were already at 100% YES. The market had priced in Trump’s endorsement before the official confirmation. With no further price movement expected, any remaining trades would be noise rather than informed bets.
This extension locks in a temporary de-escalation but does not address underlying tensions. The broader 2026 Iran war context remains unresolved. A YES share at 100% is a done deal, offering no upside but confirming what traders already expected.
Watch for statements from Hezbollah or further diplomatic talks involving VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A shift in language from these figures could signal changes in the regional balance.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 23.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13.9% | — | — | Trade → |
